NATO leaders are expected to announce a new, ambitious five percent of GDP defense spending target, aiming for a unified front against growing threats. However, this unity is already facing significant internal dissent, as Spain has secured an exemption from the full commitment, and President Donald Trump has publicly stated the target should not apply to the United States.
The proposed five percent target is bifurcated: 3.5 percent for core defense spending, a considerable leap from the current two percent benchmark, and an additional 1.5 percent allocated for infrastructure upgrades, cyber defense, and societal preparedness. This divergence raises questions about the alliance’s ability to present a truly united financial commitment.
Spain’s Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, confirmed his country’s exemption, indicating that the final NATO communique will no longer mandate the target for “all allies.” This development sets a precedent and could embolden other nations, such as Belgium, Canada, France, and Italy, who also face difficulties in significantly escalating their security budgets. Donald Trump’s assertion that the US should be excluded further complicates the issue, branding Canada a “low payer.”
The push for increased spending stems from a shared perception of an escalating threat from Russia, with European leaders increasingly warning of sabotage, cyberattacks, and a potential conventional assault. NATO experts estimate that defending against such a threat necessitates investments of at least three percent of GDP. While a 2032 deadline has been proposed for reaching the new targets, the feasibility of this timeline remains a point of contention.