Roche and Novartis Confident: Is a US Factory the Ultimate Tariff Shield?

Swiss pharmaceutical giants Roche and Novartis have expressed confidence that they will not be hit by Donald Trump’s threatened 100% tariff on branded drugs, and their reasoning reveals what may be the ultimate tariff shield: a US factory. Both companies cited their ongoing process of building and investing in American manufacturing sites as the key reason they expect to be exempt.
This position strongly supports the theory advanced by many market analysts that the tariffs are not a blanket measure but a targeted incentive to onshore production. The policy appears designed to reward companies that create jobs and invest in the US economy, while punishing those that rely solely on exporting their goods from abroad.
Lale Akoner of eToro echoed this sentiment, stating that major pharmaceutical firms with “US plants under way… likely keeps them out of the firing line.” This suggests a clear pathway for multinational corporations to navigate the treacherous waters of Trump’s trade policy: invest directly in the United States.
This development presents a major strategic challenge for the United Kingdom. Its pharmaceutical industry, a global leader in research, now faces intense pressure to shift its manufacturing base to the US to retain access to its most important market. This is a direct consequence of the UK’s failure to secure protection for the sector in its earlier trade deal.
While the “US factory shield” offers a solution for some, it is not a viable option for all businesses or industries. The 25% tariff on heavy-duty trucks, for instance, has been slammed by German automakers who already have a significant US presence. This indicates that while a US factory may be a powerful shield, it is not a guaranteed one, and the rules of engagement in this trade war remain dangerously fluid.